＂Israel 911＂ is hard to change the pattern and general trend of the Middle East.
Ma Xiaolin (Professor zhejiang international studies university)
On October 7th, Israel was attacked by the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) on a large scale, which caused unprecedented heavy loss of life and property and shocked the world. Subsequently, Israel formed an emergency coalition government, entered a state of war, declared war on Hamas and vowed to "cut and kill" it, and cut off electricity, gas, water and food in the Gaza. According to Xinhua News Agency, the Palestinian Ministry of Health said on the 12th that 1,569 Palestinians have been killed, 7,212 others have been injured and at least 330,000 civilians have been left homeless since the new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict broke out on the 7th. Although Israel’s follow-up carpet invasion has not yet begun, this major incident, known as "Israel 911", is unlikely to change the pattern and general trend of the Middle East.
Hamas was dormant for two years. After careful planning, careful deployment and benchmarking training, he deliberately chose the Jewish Sabbath on the occasion of the 50th anniversary of the outbreak of Ramadan War to strike Israel. He fired 5,000 rockets for two hours to cover and suppress the fire, and covered the gunmen who relied on paragliding to airborne in depth. Then he used drones to destroy the monitoring and early warning system of the separation wall and the communication tower of the military base. Explosives and bulldozers were used to break down the double-layer wall composed of reinforced concrete and metal barrier nets, and a large number of militants poured into Israel by motorcycles and pickups, killing the desert music festival being held 5 kilometers away and more than 20 other scheduled military and civilian targets.
The raid codenamed "Al-Aqsa Torrent" brought disaster to Israel. At least 1,300 people were killed and most of them were civilians, 3,297 people were injured, nearly 100 soldiers, including a major general, were captured, and nearly 100 civilians were taken hostage, and even atrocities such as beheading, baby killing and corpse burning occurred. At the same time, Hezbollah forces in Lebanon attacked Israel from the north to cope with its Palestinian allies.
In just a few hours, Israel relived the nightmare of the "Ramadan War" (Yom Kippur War) on October 6, 1973, when Egypt and Syria joined forces north and south and broke through the defense line. The unresponsive IDF finally killed all the gunmen in Hamas. There were about 2,000 attackers in Hamas, except for hundreds who were arrested, the remaining 1,500 survived, indicating that this was a large-scale suicide cross-border attack.
Known as a military and technological power, Israel was the ultimate winner of five Middle East wars from 1948 to 1982. However, no one expected that Hamas, who had inferior and simple equipment, pulled his teeth out of his jaws today, and the national panic exceeded the second, third and fifth Middle East wars. As far as the number of civilians killed and taken captive is concerned, it is only comparable to the first Middle East war, that is, Israel’s war of independence, which further reflects the "national disaster" and "national humiliation" of this bloody disaster.
Israel experienced the "911" disaster, in addition to Hamas’s well-prepared, successful strict secrecy and strategic deception, mainly due to Israel’s intelligence error, front-line military disability, lax underestimation based on absolute strength, and political chaos that lasted for several years. The above situation is exactly the same as the myth of "invincible" broken by the Egyptian-Syrian Coalition forces that year. The biggest sorrow is that Israel is not facing a strong neighboring regular Coalition, but a very familiar civilian armed force that has been cut like leeks for five times.
This round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict triggered a tsunami-like public outcry, stimulated the world oil price to plunge sharply, and triggered concerns about the resumption of war in the Middle East and the sharp turn of the regional pattern and general trend. In fact, the main battlefield of this conflict has moved to Gaza. No matter how many casualties, the war will not spill over to the four countries of Palestine, Israel, Lebanon and Syria, nor will it change the internal political ecology and bilateral basic situation of Palestine and Israel, let alone the existing peace-oriented pattern in the Middle East and the great momentum of dialogue and reconciliation outside Palestine and Israel.
First of all, Hamas cannot and will not be completely destroyed. Hamas has grown from small to large, and there is no lack of Israeli "credit" for its growth against the mainstream of the PLO. Keeping the Gaza Strip as the so-called "Hammarstam" can continue to split, weaken and internally consume the Palestinian camp, thus benefiting the Israeli strategy. In addition, Hamas is a political and military organization with nationalism and theocracy based on the hostility in the occupied territories. Palestine and Israel can’t achieve a just and lasting peace, and Israel’s double retaliation leads to heavy casualties, so it can only send more members to Hamas with hatred.
Secondly, Israel will not reoccupy or even annex the Gaza strip for a long time. Once the Gaza Strip, which is called "the hornet’s nest" and "the damn zone" by Israelis, is incorporated into the territory, Israel will once again bear a heavy burden of international law, morality, public opinion, economy, demographic structure and security, and will also ruin the reconciliation process with Arab countries that has made great progress and cut itself off from the international community.
Third, there will be no war in the Middle East, and Arab countries and Israel will not return to the past military confrontation of the camp. The United States sent an aircraft carrier fleet to stand for Israel and deter Iran and Hezbollah, but it will not take the initiative to intervene in the war in Gaza and make enemies all around the Middle East, let alone fall into the quagmire of the Middle East.
Fourth, oil prices will not continue to rise. Palestine and Israel are neither oil and gas producing areas in the Middle East, nor are they far away from the main road of energy output. The rise in oil prices is only a stress reaction of the market based on the memory of the oil crisis after the Ramadan War. Saudi Arabia, which launched the oil war that year, is approaching peace with Israel, and other oil-producing countries in the Middle East have no reason and ability to cut off supply or raise prices.
Fifth, the peace-oriented pattern and the great momentum of reconciliation dialogue in the Middle East will not be reversed. Israel has normalized relations with six Arab countries; The first conversation between Saudi Arabia and Iranian heads of state to discuss the Palestinian-Israeli conflict shows that the political game of regional identity that the two sides once dominated will not be repeated; The Palestinian issue may continue to be marginalized.
After the "Ramadan War", Israel knew that it could not occupy other countries’ territory for a long time in exchange for Egypt’s diplomatic recognition. After the great uprising broke out in Gaza in 1987, the Israelis knew that they could not rule the Palestinian nation for a long time, so they started the Oslo process. However, will the "911" attack now make Israel make a final concession to Palestine around the final status negotiations? I’m afraid it’s unrealistic. At least, both sides lack wise and courageous decision makers like Bei Jing and Sadat, Rabin and Arafat.
Photography/Xinhua News Agency