Central Asian countries’ cognition and expectation of the idea of ＂Silk Road Economic Belt＂
On September 7, 2013, the Supreme Leader of China president delivered a speech entitled "Promoting People’s Friendship and Creating a Better Future" at Nazarbayev University in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan. In the speech, the Supreme Leader advocated that Eurasian countries should gradually form regional cooperation through policy communication, road connectivity, smooth trade, currency circulation and people’s hearts, and finally revive the ancient Silk Road. How countries along the Silk Road, especially those in Central Asia, view and actively participate in the construction of this concept will greatly affect the prospect of this concept.
Central Asian countries"Silk Road Economic Belt"Overall evaluation of
"Silk Road" is a trade channel between ancient China and Europe, and it is also a cultural channel. It was an important carrier of economic, cultural and scientific exchanges between the East and the West in ancient times, and played an important role in cultural exchanges between China and Central Asia, West Asia and Europe. The idea of "Silk Road Economic Belt" was put forward under the background of "closer economic ties, deeper mutual cooperation and broader development space among countries in Europe and Asia", aiming at promoting various exchange activities between East and West, so as to realize the common development and prosperity of countries in Europe and Asia. This is of great domestic and international significance to China. On the one hand, it will give new impetus to the strategy of developing the western region of China and help to narrow the development gap between the eastern and western regions of China; On the other hand, it provides new ideas for China to carry out its peripheral diplomacy more effectively, especially its diplomacy in Central Asia, and gives new connotation to the further development of its relations with Central Asian countries.
Central Asia is adjacent to the western part of China, which is the connecting zone between China and Europe. Its important geographical position has established the position of Central Asian countries as the core areas in the process of building the Silk Road Economic Belt. How the five Central Asian countries evaluate the "Silk Road Economic Belt" and whether they will participate in the construction of the economic belt will be an important factor that China needs to consider when formulating relevant policies. Without the active cognition and enthusiastic participation of Central Asian countries, the idea of "Silk Road Economic Belt" can only be empty talk.
On the whole, the idea of "Silk Road Economic Belt" has been positively evaluated by the mainstream media in Central Asian countries. On September 19th, 2013, the Central Asia Times published in Bishkek pointed out that "the Supreme Leader’s visit to four Central Asian countries has opened a new chapter for China to develop relations with these countries, and his plan of’ Silk Road Economic Belt’ has been welcomed by relevant countries". On the same day, the newspaper also reported the views of the media and professionals in four Central Asian countries (except Tajikistan), Russia and France on the "Silk Road Economic Belt", which were all positive. On November 8, 2013, Central Asia Times published an article entitled "New Silk Road Economy Brought Wealth Opportunities to China, Central Asia and Europe" again, specifically reporting on "Silk Road Economic Belt". Compared with the report in September, this article has a more in-depth analysis. It not only points out the competition among major cities in China to attract favorable national policies, but also analyzes the possible benefits, measures taken and uncertainties still existing in the "Silk Road Economic Belt" extending from the eastern coast of China to Europe via Central Asia, and ignores the criticism that China hopes to seize the resources of Central Asian countries. However, it should also be pointed out that the mainstream media in Central Asian countries have not paid much attention to the idea of "Silk Road Economic Belt". In addition to the Central Asia Times, the attention of Central Asian countries to the Silk Road Economic Belt mainly appears on the online media, and the print media rarely discuss this idea enthusiastically.This may be mainly because China has not put forward specific policy measures on how to build the Silk Road Economic Belt, so all countries are still in the wait-and-see stage.
Central Asian countries generally expectThe prosperity of the Silk Road
The Supreme Leader of president, China, pointed out in the elaboration of the idea of "Silk Road Economic Belt" that the economic belt will attract Eurasian countries and countries along the ancient Silk Road to participate. If this concept defines the participating countries as "Eurasian countries" and "countries along the ancient Silk Road", then whether Central Asian countries consider themselves as "Eurasian countries" and "countries along the ancient Silk Road" and whether they expect to reproduce the prosperity of the Silk Road will become an important criterion to measure whether countries are willing to actively and long-term participate in the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt. Generally speaking, all countries in Central Asia believe that they are along the ancient Silk Road, which not only emphasizes that the ancient Silk Road has brought prosperity and stability to their countries, but also looks forward to reviving this ancient trade route. However, in view of the different roles played by countries on the ancient Silk Road and the different interests of the five Central Asian countries, the specific attitudes of countries to the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt are also different.
Kazakhstan is at the crossroads of Europe and Asia and even the center of Eurasia, and plays an important role in reviving the ancient intercontinental trade channel. In 1997, Nazarbayev said that Kazakhstan "is at the crossroads of Europe and Asia? ? Today, with the help of the world community, we are committed to restoring the Silk Road through cooperation with other countries in the region. In 2005, when talking about Kazakhstan’s national development strategy in 2030, Nazarbayev said: "Kazakhstan will become an important link and transcontinental economic bridge between Europe, Asia-Pacific and South Asia." It can be seen that Nazarbayev has been looking forward to rebuilding the Silk Road and benefiting Kazakhstan from it.
Kyrgyzstan expects that the revival of the Silk Road will help it improve its relations with neighboring countries and realize the development of Kyrgyzstan’s national construction, so it also supports the revival of the Silk Road. Osh, a city in southern Kyrgyzstan, was once the silk industrial center on the ancient Silk Road, second only to Suzhou, China. Kyrgyzstan played an important role on the ancient Silk Road before, which made it yearn to reproduce the scene of smooth communication and unity between countries on the ancient Silk Road.
Uzbek President Karimov also emphasized Uzbekistan’s contribution to the ancient Silk Road, and believed that Uzbekistan in Timur era was the hub of the ancient Silk Road, and its capital Samarkand even constituted the capital center of interaction between East Asia and Europe. Moreover, Ukraine widely publicized its role in the ancient Silk Road as an international brand to highlight its rich cultural heritage and glorious history. In view of this, Ukraine hopes that the Silk Road will flourish in the contemporary era, and at the same time, it will realize the economic development and national prosperity of Ukraine and play an active role in political, economic and cultural exchanges between the East and the West.
Turkmenistan also looks forward to the revival of the Silk Road. As reported in Neutral Turkmenistan News, the visit of the Supreme Leader Chairman to Turkmenistan has consolidated the achievements of cooperation between the two sides and raised the relations between the two countries to a new height. Turkmenistan is proud of its friendly relations with China, and regards this relationship as a key factor to ensure the stability and development of the Eurasian region. The newspaper also said that Turkey will support the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt.
Tajikistan is also the area where the ancient Silk Road passed, and Kuzhan, the second largest city in its north, was once an important town on the Silk Road. The people of Tajikistan also have a sense of historical and cultural closeness to the Silk Road. Especially after the civil war, the Tajik people are more eager for social stability and economic development, and hope that the Silk Road will regain its vitality and provide more opportunities for the development of Tajikistan.
Constructing "Silk Road Economic Belt"Feasibility of
First of all, the rapid development of relations between China and Central Asian countries has laid a good foundation for building the Silk Road Economic Belt. Take the trade volume between China and the five countries as an example. In 2000, the trade volume between China and the five Central Asian countries was only $1.8 billion, while in 2012, the two sides reached $45.9 billion. In more than ten years, the trade volume between China and five Central Asian countries has increased by more than twenty times. In 2012, China has become the largest trading partner of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, and the second largest trading partner of Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. This shows that the relationship between China and Central Asian countries has experienced rapid and steady development, and the deepening economic cooperation between the two sides has provided a solid foundation for all countries to actively participate in the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt.
Secondly, the close and smooth political relationship between the two sides is a strong support for Central Asian countries to participate in the construction of the "Silk Road Economic Belt". In May 2013, the heads of state of China and Tajikistan announced the promotion of China-Tajikistan relations to a strategic partnership. In September 2013, during President Supreme Leader’s visit to four Central Asian countries, China’s bilateral relations with other Central Asian countries were comprehensively upgraded: for example, China-Turkey and China-Kyrgyzstan relations were upgraded to strategic partnerships respectively; China-Kazakhstan relations have been further deepened into a comprehensive strategic partnership; China and Ukraine have further developed and deepened their strategic partnership and signed a treaty of friendship and cooperation. So far, China has established a comprehensive strategic partnership with five Central Asian countries. The close political ties between the two sides provide a basis for close and frank consultations on how to build the Silk Road Economic Belt.
Thirdly, deepening economic and trade cooperation provides a realistic basis for Central Asian countries to look forward to reviving the Silk Road. During the Supreme Leader’s visit to Kazakhstan, China and Kazakhstan signed a contract worth up to 30 billion US dollars. During their visit to Uzbekistan, the two sides signed 31 documents with a contract value of US$ 15 billion. During President Xi’s visit to Central Asian countries alone, the total investment and cooperation agreements signed by China and the four countries of Kazakhstan exceeded 48 billion US dollars.
Finally, the rich benefits that the construction of the "Silk Road Economic Belt" may bring are the main reasons for the general positive attitude of Central Asian countries. Central Asian countries have made great achievements in political, economic, social and other fields over the past 20 years, but they still face many difficulties. The planned road connectivity, smooth trade and currency circulation of the Silk Road Economic Belt can provide important benefits for Central Asian countries to promote national construction and strengthen foreign relations, and it is the most reliable guarantee to attract Central Asian countries to participate in the implementation of this concept. Generally speaking, the benefits that Central Asian countries can obtain include: countries are supported in improving the construction of infrastructure such as roads, oil and gas pipelines and power grids; Diversified energy export routes; Promote the enrichment of domestic commodity market and expand foreign trade volume; Access to the sea can be more effectively integrated into the global economy; Form the motivation to improve the domestic investment environment in order to increase foreign investment; Further close ties with the outside world, especially with China and European countries, and so on.
Constructing "Silk Road Economic Belt"Challenges faced
First of all, starting from their own reality, Central Asian countries may affect their participation in the Silk Road Economic Belt. This challenge began to appear when Kyrgyzstan withdrew from the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Ukraine railway. On the one hand, Kyrgyzstan announced that it would actively participate in the construction of the "Silk Road Economic Belt", on the other hand, it announced its withdrawal from the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Ukraine railway in December 2013. On December 16, 2013, Kyrgyz President atambayev even said: "In fact, the China-Kyrgyzstan-Ukraine Railway cannot solve any problems in our country." Although Kyrgyzstan announced its withdrawal from the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Ukraine railway, it does not mean that Kyrgyzstan will refuse to participate in the construction of the "Silk Road Economic Belt". The degree of participation depends on the extent to which this idea can meet the interests of all countries.
Secondly, the different development levels of the five Central Asian countries directly increase the difficulty of coordination in the process of building the Silk Road Economic Belt. After the independence of Central Asian countries for more than 20 years, the differences among countries in the development process have become more and more obvious, and this difference is also reflected in the differences in the interests of countries. For example, in the construction of transportation facilities, Kyrgyzstan hopes to build a railway connecting its south and north, Uzbekistan expects China to start the construction of the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway, and Tajikistan continues to seek China’s help to improve its infrastructure. Moreover, there are still some contradictions among Central Asian countries, such as disputes among the five countries on the allocation of water resources, incomplete demarcation of national boundaries, inconsistent foreign policy orientations (including relations with China), and so on. All these problems will further increase the difficulty of policy coordination between China and other countries in the process of building the Silk Road Economic Belt.
Thirdly, people in some Central Asian countries have doubts about the formation of a closer relationship with China. Based on China’s economic advantages, some elites and ordinary people in Central Asian countries believe that economic cooperation with China is more beneficial to China than Central Asian countries, and some people in Central Asian countries are worried that with China’s investment, a large number of China immigrants and cheap goods will flood in. They think that China enterprises are more willing to hire relevant talents from China, which will lead to the reduction of local employment opportunities. Based on this knowledge, they have doubts about whether the construction of the "Silk Road Economic Belt" is a means for China to expand its influence in the region. Although China has done a lot to promote people-to-people exchanges with Central Asian countries, the differences in interests, language, culture and development level still hinder Central Asian people’s in-depth understanding of China.
Finally, Russia’s attitude towards the idea of "Silk Road Economic Belt" cannot be ignored. As we all know, Russia’s rule in Central Asia has lasted for more than 100 years, which has led to many close ties between Central Asia and Russia, which determines that Russia has influence in this region that other big countries do not have. Not only that, Russia still regards the region as its traditional sphere of influence. In order to consolidate Russia’s influence in the region, Russia has put forward an initiative to integrate Central Asia in recent years, that is, the idea of "Eurasian Union". Although the original intention of China’s idea of "Silk Road Economic Belt" is not to weaken Russia’s influence and compete with "Eurasian Union", Russia’s attitude towards the idea of "Silk Road Economic Belt" is bound to affect the willingness of Central Asian countries to participate under the background that Russia regards Central Asia as its traditional sphere of influence.
Conclusion
All in all, Central Asian countries have expectations for the construction of the "Silk Road Economic Belt", hoping to further develop their relations with China and realize their own development. However, due to the differences in the interests of Central Asian countries, the doubts of countries about China’s strong economic strength and the traditional influence of Russia in this region, the construction of the "Silk Road Economic Belt" still faces many challenges. In this context, China needs to strengthen the following work to ensure the smooth implementation of the Silk Road Economic Belt initiative.
First, the interests of Central Asian countries should be fully considered. In addition to developing relations with other countries by increasing loans and investments, we should respect the sovereignty, local customs, laws and regulations of all countries, and gradually stimulate the long-term and sincere participation of Central Asian countries in the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt, so that elites and people of all countries can realize that this idea is an effective way to achieve mutual benefit, win-win and equal development of all parties involved. Second, strengthen communication with governments of other countries, and at the same time refine the specific content and measures of this idea, strengthen humanities cooperation and mutual understanding with other countries, conduct in-depth research on the psychology of the people in Central Asian countries, and take appropriate measures to improve the people’s cognition of China in Central Asia after understanding their attitudes towards China’s expanding influence. This is also a problem that China needs to pay special attention to and focus on when implementing the idea of "Silk Road Economic Belt". Third, strengthen communication and coordination with Russia, and eliminate Russia’s misunderstanding and concerns about China’s desire to expand its influence in Central Asia. In this process, China can first promote Russia’s participation in the idea of building the Silk Road Economic Belt, and then communicate with Russia in time when relevant measures are introduced and implemented, so as to prevent Central Asian countries from weakening their enthusiasm for participating in the construction of the Silk Road Economic Belt because of their consideration of Russia.
(The author is an associate professor of Central Asia Institute and School of Management, Lanzhou University)
(Editor: Wei Dandan)