Short sleeves in the south and snow in the northeast! Directly hit the local snowstorm in Northeast China!

2024年2月18日 | admin | C3

While the sun is shining high, it is snowing heavily. Some people in the south are so hot that they blow air conditioners with bare arms, but the northeast is lit with a blizzard warning.

The heat in the south is record-breaking.

5G winter in many places in Northeast China

Just as the vast number of southerners are still struggling in the hot weather of 30℃, the northeast has entered the winter ahead of schedule, and many places have ushered in the first snow, which can’t be cured by the northeast. On November 1st, there was a sudden heavy snowfall in Jilin City, Jilin Province. Zhao, a college student who left her dormitory for class in the morning, photographed this scene of snowflakes flying. She said that although she was from Shenyang, she was also very surprised by the unexpected heavy snowfall in Jilin.

Children in the northeast have even had snowball fights. Also in Jilin City, Jilin Province, teacher Xie, the head teacher of a school, saw that it was snowing and invited two teachers to organize students to have a snowball fight on the playground during recess. On the white snow, teachers and students are busy chasing and playing with snowballs.

The southern students who went to school in the northeast were shocked by the heavy snow, lamenting that 5G is fast and it has already snowed.

At the same time, the Guangdong media "despaired" that there is no hope of autumn in Shenzhen, and the air-conditioning and refrigeration mode of Shenzhen people has started again.

However, don’t worry!Large-scale cold air will go south immediately.

On the afternoon of November 3, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued the first cold wave warning in the second half of this year, and continued to issue cold wave blue warning and gale blue warning on the morning of November 4.

△ Figure/Central Meteorological Observatory

Affected by strong cold air, the temperature in most parts of China will drop by 6 ~ 10℃ from November 4 to 7, among which the temperature in northwest Gansu, central Inner Mongolia, south-central Northeast China, central and eastern Jianghuai and other places will drop by 12 ~ 14℃, and the local temperature drop in central Jilin and other places can reach above 16℃.

Meteorologists reminded that the temperature in most parts of China is obviously higher than normal recently, so the cooling caused by strong cold air will be more significant. The public should pay attention to the weather changes and add clothes in time.

From 8 o’clock yesterday to 6 o’clock today, due to the influence of cold air, 1 ~ 7 mm of snowfall (rain) or sleet appeared in parts of northwestern Shanxi, northwestern Hebei, central and eastern Inner Mongolia, western Liaoning, western Jilin, Heilongjiang and other places, southeastern Inner Mongolia and central and western Liaoning. The precipitation is 10 ~ 25 mm and the local area exceeds 30 mm; The maximum snow depth in some of the above areas is 1 ~ 8 cm, and the local area exceeds 14 cm.

At 05 o’clock today, compared with 05 o’clock yesterday, the temperature dropped by 6 ~ 12℃ in the eastern part of northwest China, North China, Huanghuai, Jianghuai, central Inner Mongolia and western Liaoning, and the local temperature dropped by more than 14℃. Some of the above areas were accompanied by gusts of 7 ~ 9 and 10 ~ 11. In addition, heavy rain or rainstorm occurred in parts of northern Guangxi, northeastern Hainan Island, southern Hunan, northwestern Jiangxi, northwestern Zhejiang, eastern Hubei, Anhui, northern Jiangsu, northern Shandong, Liaoning, eastern Jilin and other places, with heavy rain (100 ~ 112 mm) in Weifang, Shandong and Hechi, Guangxi, and thunderstorms and strong winds in Hunan and Jiangxi.

Central Meteorological Observatory (in China)At 10 o’clock on November 6,continueRelease blizzardorangeColor warning:

It is estimated that from 14: 00 on November 6 to 14: 00 on November 7, there will be heavy snowstorms in parts of central and eastern Heilongjiang, central and western Jilin, northern Liaoning and southeastern Inner Mongolia. Among them, there are heavy blizzards in parts of northeastern Heilongjiang, with local heavy blizzards (30 ~ 32 mm). The depth of newly added snow in some areas above is 8-10 cm, and the local area can reach more than 20 cm. There is freezing rain in central and northern Jilin and eastern Heilongjiang.

On November 5th, the Education Bureau of Harbin, Heilongjiang Province issued a notice on doing a good job in preventing and responding to the snowstorm: On November 4th, emergency headquarters, a meteorological disaster in Harbin, started the Class II emergency response to the meteorological disaster (blizzard). On November 6th, in order to ensure the safety of students, kindergartens and off-campus training institutions in primary and secondary schools in six districts of the main city of Harbin were closed for one day.

Domestic specific forecast for the next three days

From 08: 00 on November 6 to 08: 00 on November 7,There is moderate to heavy snow or sleet in parts of southeastern Inner Mongolia and most parts of Northeast China. Among them, there are blizzards or heavy blizzards in parts of southeastern Inner Mongolia, central and eastern Heilongjiang, central and western Jilin and central and northern Liaoning, and there are heavy blizzards (30-40 mm) in northeastern and southern Heilongjiang and central and western Jilin. The depth of newly added snow in some areas above is 10 ~ 20cm, and the local area can reach more than 30cm. There are freezing rains in parts of southern Heilongjiang and central and northern Jilin. There are moderate to heavy rains in parts of eastern Heilongjiang, southeastern Guizhou, southern Yunnan and northwestern Guangxi, among which there is local heavy rain (50-60 mm) in southern Yunnan. There are 4 ~ 6 winds and 7 ~ 9 gusts in parts of southeastern Inner Mongolia, northeastern Heilongjiang and western Jilin (see Figure 5).

Figure 5 National Precipitation Forecast Chart (08: 00 on November 6-08: 00 on November 7)

From 08: 00 on November 7 to 08: 00 on November 8,There are small to medium snow or sleet in parts of northeastern Heilongjiang, southern Tibet and southern Sichuan Plateau. There is moderate to heavy rain (25 ~ 40 mm) in parts of central and western Jiangxi, central and southern Hunan, northwestern Guangxi, southwestern coastal areas of Guangdong and southeastern Hainan Island. There are 4 ~ 5 winds in parts of northeast Heilongjiang (see Figure 6).

Figure 6 National Precipitation Forecast Chart (08: 00 on November 7-08: 00 on November 8)

From 08: 00 on November 8 to 08: 00 on November 9,There are small to medium snow or sleet in parts of southeastern Inner Mongolia, central and eastern Heilongjiang, central and western Jilin, northern Liaoning, southern Tibet, southern Sichuan Plateau, etc. Among them, there are heavy snowstorms (10 ~ 13 mm) in southern Heilongjiang and central Jilin. There are moderate to heavy rains in parts of southern Liaoning, northeastern Guizhou, southeastern Chongqing, north-central Hunan, southern Hubei, central Jiangxi, and western Zhejiang, and local heavy rains (50-60 mm) in western Jiangxi. There is moderate rain in parts of eastern Liaoning and other places. There are 4 ~ 6 winds in parts of central and western Inner Mongolia (see Figure 7).

Figure 7 National Precipitation Forecast Chart (08: 00 on November 8-08: 00 on November 9)

(China Xiaokang Network Comprehensive xiaoxiang morning herald, Central Meteorological Observatory, Harbin Education Bureau WeChat WeChat official account)

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It snowed for the first time in the main city of Chongqing in 16 years.

2024年2月17日 | admin | C3

Special topic: All parts of the country are United in fighting snow disasters.

　　　　Xinhuanet Chongqing, January 28 (Reporter Wang Jintao) On the morning of the 28th, there were many snowflakes floating in the main city of Chongqing. This is the first time in 16 years that it snows in the main city of Chongqing.


　　　　The altitude of the main urban area of Chongqing is between 200 meters and 300 meters. Because of its low altitude, surrounded by high mountains and its geographical location is south, its winter temperature is often higher than that of other cities at the same latitude. Chongqing citizens have never seen snow since it snowed in the main city of Chongqing in 1992.


　　　　According to the forecast of Chongqing Meteorological Observatory, a southbound cold air will arrive in Chongqing on the evening of January 27th, which will bring an obvious heavy snow and rain process to Chongqing. It is estimated that the average temperature in the main city of Chongqing on the 28th will be 2 degrees Celsius to 4 degrees Celsius, and the temperature in some areas may be below zero degrees Celsius.


　　　　Some citizens told reporters that there was only sporadic light rain in the sky on the morning of the 28th, but on their way to work, the rain turned into snowflakes, and it was getting bigger and bigger, and the amount of snow was equivalent to a moderate rain.


　　　　Despite the cold weather, some children in the main city of Chongqing still ran into the yard to meet the long-lost snowflakes. However, there is no snowy scene in the main city of Chongqing, and the snow melts when it falls to the ground. The meteorological staff said that because the temperature in the main city of Chongqing is still relatively high compared with other cities in the north, the ground generally does not freeze.

Editor: Liu Li

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Zigong, Sichuan： Delicious reunion dinner in the grass-roots fire station.

2024年2月4日 | admin | C3
Zhang Zhe (left) and Zeng Biao are wrapping jiaozi in the canteen to prepare the reunion dinner. Photo by Liu Zhongjun
Zigong, Sichuan: Delicious reunion dinner in the grass-roots fire station.
Zigong, Zhongxin. com, February 9 (Liu Zhongjun, Liu Jun) On February 9, the fire rescue station in Zhongyongshan Road, Zigong City, Sichuan Province welcomed two special "guests", who brought apples, beef and preserved eggs from their hometowns to firefighters, which filled the nervous fire station with a strong "year’s taste".
Zhang Zhe (second from left) and Li Chunyan (second from right) came to the fire station where her husband was working together to celebrate the New Year, and brought gifts to the firefighters in the fire station. Photo by Liu Zhongjun
It is understood that 30-year-old Zhang Zhe, one of the special "guests", is the wife of Zeng Biao, the instructor of Zhongyongshan Road Fire Rescue Station. She used to work in Liangshan Fire Rescue Detachment. For the sake of her family, Zhang Zhe voluntarily gave up her administrative promotion and was transferred to the high-tech zone brigade of Zigong Fire Rescue Detachment for technical work under the care of "Reunion Plan". "My husband and I are both firefighters, and we can better understand and understand each other’s difficulties, especially during the Spring Festival. It is a test and pass for us to have a holiday." Zhang Zhe said that because her husband was on duty in ziliujing district during the Spring Festival, and she had to carry out supervision and inspection and fire prevention publicity in her jurisdiction, although there was only a Fuxi River between the two jurisdictions, it was only after the festival that she would meet.
Mou Chenxu instructs his wife Li Chunyan to pack jiaozi. Photo by Liu Zhongjun
Another 28-year-old special "guest" is Li Chunyan, a police officer in Yibin, and her husband is a second-class firefighter Mou Chenxu of the fire station. They have been married for more than a year. Because of the separation between the two places, they are also separated from each other. This is the first time that the couple spend the New Year together on the eve of the Spring Festival. "I just want to come and see him two days before the festival and give a hand to the elderly at home. Everyone is busy and used to it in the New Year. I have to go back to the Spring Festival security mission. Today, let’s be together in advance." I can’t get together with my husband during the Spring Festival, but Zhang Zhe and Li Chunyan always have warm smiles on their faces.
Zeng Biao, Zhang Zhe, Li Chunyan and Mou Chenxu sent New Year greetings to everyone. Photo by Liu Zhongjun
"Sister, they are going to eat jiaozi in two days." "Ok, together?" "You can’t eat theirs for free, lest you gossip." "How about bringing some local specialties to everyone?" "Ok, that’s settled." Li Chunyan revealed that after a simple communication with Zhang Zhe through WeChat, the two started their own preparations, so the opening scene appeared. Zhang Zhe said frankly that from love to marriage to now, due to the particularity of their respective jobs, the two have never spent the Spring Festival and had dinner together, which is the first time. "In the past, I had to run more than 1,100 kilometers back and forth. Now I am fine. Thanks to the concern of the organization, we all have to work harder to protect Zigong."
Zhang Zhe (third from left) and Li Chunyan (second from left) in the canteen of the fire station pack jiaozi with the firemen to prepare the reunion dinner. Photo by Liu Zhongjun
When Zhang Zhe and Li Chunyan arrived at the fire station, they arranged for everyone to hang red lanterns, put up window grilles and Spring Festival couplets, and the fire station was quickly filled with a strong "flavor of the year". Later, Zhang Zhe and Li Chunyan called their husbands and organized off-duty firefighters to pack jiaozi for the reunion dinner. Laughter and laughter rang out from time to time in the canteen. After two hours of intense preparation, plates of jiaozi were wrapped and put into the pot. When dinner time comes, everyone sits around and wishes each other, eats jiaozi and feels the delicious reunion dinner in the fire station.
Wu Shilin, instructor of the fire rescue brigade, said that there are 24 firefighters in the fire rescue station of Zhongyongshan Road, and 17 of them are from other places. Due to the particularity of fire rescue work, no matter whether the new players or the old players go home for the New Year during the Spring Festival, they all stick to the front line of fire rescue. (End)
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Edwards, the new champion： another inspirational bad karma Eva from football field to NBA field

2024年1月26日 | admin | C3
On the morning of November 19th, Beijing time, the 2020 NBA Draft was held online. The Timberwolves chose guard anthony edwards from the University of Georgia in the first round. The 19-year-old boy was elected as the No.1 pick in this year’s NBA, finally fulfilling his basketball dream and officially stepping onto the NBA stage. Edwards has the same inspirational story as jimmy butler. His earliest ambition was to become a football star, and all kinds of misfortunes and twists and turns in his growth eventually turned such a gifted sports genius into a basketball superstar in the future.
Edwards is 1.96 meters tall. On the draft template of American media, he resembles former Heat star Dwyane Wade or jazz general Donovan Mitchell, but his athletic talent seems to be better than both. As far as physical condition is concerned, Edwards is a strong defender. Besides his excellent scoring ability, he can also be a very qualified defender and can defend multiple positions, which makes Edwards look more balanced and comprehensive at both ends of the offense and defense. As a scorer, Edwards can attack with the ball or play without the ball. He can break through the opponent’s defense line and score in an unexpected way with accurate dry jump shot. In the last NCAA season, Edwards’ data was 19.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.3 steals. His outstanding athletic ability made Edwards full of impact when he switched between offense and defense, which was quite Wade’s style at the peak.
The talented Edwards also has some shortcomings. One is the lack of concentration on the court, which makes his play unstable, sometimes good and sometimes bad, and his state often fluctuates. Edwards is still quite "independent". His creed is "scoring first and passing second". This kind of play may bring problems in cooperation with teammates after entering the NBA. As a veteran of the rookie team, it is obvious that he will not accept a little player who has always controlled the ball in his own hands. In addition, as a shooting guard, Edwards’ 3-point shooting percentage is not high enough. His 3-point shooting percentage last season was only 29.4%.
Speaking of it, there are some unexpected and lucky elements in the future NBA stadium to have such a talented player. Because Edwards’ initial sports dream was to enter the NFL and become a football star, the unexpected injury changed his fate and the development of the two major professional leagues in North America. This may be exaggerated, but it is at least partially true.
Edwards, like many American teenagers with great sports talent, can choose multiple sports, which depends on his hobbies, opportunities, providence and so on. Edwards’ favorite sport since childhood is not basketball, but football. At the age of seven, he met a local football coach, Banks, who was very insightful in his hometown of Atlanta. The latter was moved at the sight of little Edwards. Banks said with emotion: "Strong calves, huge joints, fingers and wrists are natural materials for a football player." At that time, Edwards had shown his athletic talent far beyond his peers, taller and stronger, and began to become famous on the football field in primary schools.
Unfortunately, Edwards’ football career didn’t go smoothly, and he died almost when he was about to have a big development. At the age of nine, Edwards’ fate took a turning point. A sudden injury made him bid farewell to the football field completely. He was crushed on his foot by a big player who defended him in a game, resulting in a broken ankle. It seems that Edwards’ football career will be over, and even other sports will encounter difficulties. But at this time, his interest in basketball began to grow in Edwards’ body. After his foot injury healed, he became fascinated with basketball and his interest increased day by day. Fortunately, this injury did not seriously damage Edwards’ athletic ability. His legs were stronger and he jumped higher than before, which made him fully equipped to become a basketball player. But even after he made great progress in the field of basketball, Edwards still remembered the glory and fun brought by football. He said that if he could be selected in the NFL draft, he would definitely leave basketball. His favorite is football.
After graduating from high school, Edwards chose to go to the University of Georgia instead of going to North Carolina and Duke. At that time, his vertical takeoff height had reached 1.054 meters, which was amazing. "The height of 1.96 meters, less than 100 kilograms, can jump so high at the age of 17, you can imagine his future." This is the emotion that sean hayes, the strength training coach of the University of Georgia men’s basketball team, expressed when he saw Edwards’ athletic ability. After further observing Edwards’ training and competition, Coach Hayes said, "There are some things that I will never understand. I watched him throw and dunk, dunk with a windmill and dunk with a tomahawk. Most people will leave the court to find a glass of water after a high-intensity training, but he will stay on the court and dunk with himself with a smile." This may be the difference between Edwards and ordinary people. He is destined to enter the NBA, but what is higher than most people’s expectations is that Edwards started his NBA career as the No.1 scholar with infinite glory.
As many fans know, the story of the most frustrated family among the active NBA stars and the most positive story later happened to Heat star jimmy butler, which is almost the most touching growth story of an inspirational player who went from homeless to finals. Anthony edwards, who is now the new top scholar, has a similar experience.
In Edwards’ childhood, two people played a vital role in his growth, that is, his mother and grandmother. Regrettably, Edwards, who is less than 20 years old, and his two closest relatives have already passed away. When Edwards was 14 years old, he lost his mother first, and then his grandmother. Both of them died of ovarian cancer, which hit young Edwards hard. The young man once said, "Only two people can get all my trust, but it’s over. Now no one can get my trust." This is the reason for his dull personality, and the death of two of his most important relatives has left Edwards with defects in his personality. Edwards’ brother Buba once recalled: "In our whole life, our mothers and grandmothers supported us the most and loved us the most. They died in the same year, which is a huge blow to us. This will make your heart cold and you will never get the support and love you once received. " Edwards also recalled the past in an interview. Many years ago, he wrote two goals on the bedroom wall: "the future McDonald’s all-American team member" and "the future NBA player". When seeing Edwards make a mess of the clean wall, grandma was not angry, but said to him very proudly, "Son, you have set goals for yourself, and I hope you can achieve them."
Edwards said that he loves basketball, but he admitted that he hasn’t really devoted himself to it. There are many contradictions in Edwards’ statement. For example, he said that basketball ranks first in his heart now. He loves basketball and basketball is his life. But he also said, "This is because basketball can help me accomplish many things that I need to accomplish. This is a job, and I need to use this job to support my family and make my family happy." This may be the maturity brought by the unique growth experience to the young man. What is more important than interest and love is pragmatism.
But in any case, starting from the 2020-21 season, there will be a newcomer with unlimited potential in the NBA. Perhaps, this newcomer will become a superstar in the future.
Text/Beiqing Sports Liu Ailin
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How big is the impact of the epic slump in global financial markets on A-shares？

2024年1月20日 | admin | C3

　　Beijing, March 10 (Reporter Cheng Chunyu) The US WTI crude oil futures recorded the largest intraday decline in history, the US stock market rarely triggered the fuse mechanism, the US treasury bond futures "daily limit", and more than half of the world’s important stock market indexes fell by more than 6%. March 9, 2020 is destined to be a day worth recording in the history of global financial markets.

　　Data Map: new york Stock Exchange.

　　set records

　　— — Crude oil futures hit the biggest intraday decline in history.

　　After the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) failed to reach a production reduction agreement with oil-producing countries, Saudi Arabia drastically cut oil prices, which led to a sharp drop in international oil prices. Brent crude oil futures plunged 30% to $31.02/barrel in early trading, the lowest level since February 2016; US WTI crude oil also plunged 27% in early trading, and once fell more than 33% in intraday trading to $27.34, setting a new record for the largest intraday decline in history.

　　— — US stocks rarely trigger fuse mechanism.

　　The U.S. stock market plunged at the opening, and the S&P 500 index fell by 7% at the beginning of the session, triggering the first-level fuse mechanism, causing the U.S. stock market to suspend trading for 15 minutes. This is the first time since the financial crisis in 2008 that US stocks have been blown down due to a sharp fall. There are even media reports that this is the second real fuse in the history of US stocks. The last real fuse of US stocks was on October 27, 1997.

　　— — More than half of the important stock indexes fell by more than 6%

　　According to Wind’s statistics, among the 16 important indexes of global stock market, on the 9th, in addition to the three major indexes in the United States, the FTSE 100 in Britain, DAX in Germany, CAC40 in France, Nikkei 225, Standard & Poor’s 200 in Australia, etc., a total of nine indexes fell in intraday trading, and even closed down more than 6% on the same day. The three major European stock indexes fell more than 8% in intraday trading, followed by the China Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by about 3%.

　　— — Us debt futures "daily limit", yield hit a record low

　　Under the safe-haven demand, the influx of funds caused the US 10-year treasury bond futures to hit the upper limit and the trading was temporarily suspended. The yield of the US 10-year treasury bond once fell to a record low of 0.318%, with an intraday decline of nearly 40%. The 30-year US Treasury bonds once dropped to 0.702%, continuing to hit a record low, with a daily decline of nearly 30%. Moreover, as the leading indicator of economic recession, the yield curves of 3-month and 10-year US government bonds were once upside down, which sounded a panic alarm.

　　— — The price of gold returned to $1,700 per ounce after eight years.

　　After the sell-off of crude oil and stock market, investors flocked to the safe-haven assets including precious metal gold. On the 9th, the international gold futures price broke through the $1,700/oz mark, the highest since December 2012.

　　source map

　　(blasting) fuse

　　— — The price war of crude oil suddenly opened after six years.

　　Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic and other factors, the U.S. stock market plunged continuously. In view of the evolving risks brought by the epidemic to economic activities, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 50 basis points on the 3rd, and then the U.S. stock market fluctuated widely, and a roller coaster market was staged last week.

　　"The crude oil price war started in Saudi Arabia over the weekend became the fuse of the global financial market’s plunge on the 9th." According to foreign media reports, Russia refused to cut production at the OPEC+policy meeting on March 6, and OPEC and its allies in oil-producing countries failed to reach any production reduction agreement, which means that from April, OPEC-related oil-producing countries will completely liberalize production restrictions.

　　On March 7th (Saturday), Saudi Arabia, the main OPEC country, drastically reduced the price of crude oil sold to foreign markets such as Europe, the Far East and the United States, with the largest discount in more than 20 years, in order to attract foreign refineries to buy Saudi crude oil. Saudi Arabia also said that if the market needs it, Saudi Arabia can reach the level of 12 million barrels per day.

　　The market generally believes that after a lapse of six years, Saudi Arabia took the initiative to start a crude oil price war, which exceeded the market’s previous expectations. Previously, many financial analysts predicted that OPEC would further cut production to boost oil prices.

　　On the 9th, US President Trump sent a tweet to appease the panic market. It said that the debate between Saudi Arabia and Russia on oil prices and production, as well as the false news spread by political opponents, were the reasons for the stock market decline that day, and the decline in gasoline prices was also a good thing for ordinary consumers.

　　ChrisRupkey, an economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Finance, said: "The plan to reduce oil prices will make more cash flow into people’s hands, which can drive consumer spending and boost the economy, but this does not seem to alleviate the impact of the stock market on investors. The plight of Wall Street may have a negative impact on the economy. "

　　"The plunge in oil prices has once again aggravated the fragility of the market," JasonDaw, head of Asian foreign exchange strategy at Societe Generale, told the media. "The longer the global epidemic lasts, the greater the risk of a full-scale crisis."

　　afternoon trading

　　— — Will crude oil prices continue to fall?

　　On the 9th, the international oil price plummeted, once falling more than 30%, setting a new record for the biggest intraday decline in history. NYMEX crude oil futures closed down 26.74% to $30.24/barrel, the lowest since February 2016; Brent crude oil futures fell 26.24% to $33.39/barrel, both the biggest one-day declines since the Gulf War in 1991.

　　As of press time, the price fluctuation of energy and chemical futures such as crude oil.

　　In the latest report, Goldman Sachs analysts said that Brent crude oil price may drop as low as $20 per barrel, which will test some oil producers. "The price war has completely changed the prospects of the oil and gas market. Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price forecast for the second and third quarters to $30 per barrel."

　　Hong Hao, managing director and head of research department of Bank of Communications International, believes that the impact of the oil crisis is reflected in the following aspects: the price of junk bonds in the United States will plummet, the stability risk of the financial system will rise, and the expectation of deflation will increase the difficulty of monetary policy.

　　However, in the view of Xi Jiarui, a senior analyst of Jinlianchuang Crude Oil, this oil price drop will not become a long-term trend like the oil price crash in 2014. Saudi Arabia’s behavior is to force Russia to continue to cooperate with OPEC. It is expected that once the oil price falls to a level that Russia itself feels unable to bear, it is likely to restart the production reduction agreement.

　　According to the latest report of Everbright Securities, the special alliance between Saudi Arabia and the United States means that it will be difficult for the United States to accept the prospect that oil prices will continue to slump because of the price war in Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the current plunge in oil prices is unsustainable, and there may be variables in the future.

　　Xi Jiarui said, "The next production reduction meeting is on June 9, and it is very likely that Saudi Arabia and Russia will jointly cut production again. At that time, oil prices may rebound in retaliation."

　　On the 9th, the decline of major stock indexes in European and American stock markets.

　　— — European and American stock markets enter a technical bear market?

　　As of the close of the 9th, the Dow Jones index plunged more than 2,000 points, closing down 7.79%, the biggest one-day drop since 2008. The S&P 500 index fell by 7.60%, and the Nasdaq index fell by 7.29%. Oil stocks suffered heavy losses, and Chevron fell more than 15%, leading the Dow. So far, the Dow has dropped by 19.34% compared with the historical high set by this bull market.

　　On the same day, major European stock indexes closed down across the board, and many stock indexes entered a technical bear market. Britain’s FTSE 100 index fell 7.69%, France’s CAC40 index closed down 8.39%, and Germany’s DAX index fell 7.94%. Among them, Germany DAX index, France CAC40 index, Italy FTSE MIB index, Europe Stoxx 50 index and Britain FTSE 100 index entered the technical bear market.

　　Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, pointed out that US stocks will fall sharply after peaking. According to the experience of US stocks, a decline of 20% is generally called the dividing line between bulls and bears. If it falls below 20% and does not come back, it shows that the bear trend is confirmed and will fall further by 20%.

　　Xie Feng, a researcher at China Banking Research Institute, believes that the debt level of American enterprises is high, and the debt quality of residents has deteriorated. Once the economic slowdown exceeds expectations, corporate profits will further decline, and residents’ wealth will also be damaged, which may lead to more risk release in the financial market.

　　A-share major stock indexes closed on the 9th.

　　— — Can China A-shares be immune?

　　On the 9th, among the world’s important stock indexes, the overall decline of A shares was lower. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.01%, the Shenzhen Composite Index fell 4.09%, and the Growth Enterprise Market Index fell 4.55%. In the whole day, the transaction between the two cities broke through one trillion yuan. The net outflow of northbound funds from Shanghai Stock Connect was 9.671 billion, and that from Shenzhen Stock Connect was 4.648 billion.

　　Chen Li, chief economist of soochow securities, said in an interview with the media that the main reason for the A-share slump on the 9th was the violent fluctuation of the global capital market, and the violent fluctuation of the external market aroused the concern of domestic investors. The turnover of the two cities has continuously exceeded one trillion, indicating that there are great differences in funds. Some funds are leaving the market, and some funds are considered to be opportunities to buy on dips.

　　It is noteworthy that on the 9th, the FTSE China A50 index futures, as the leading indicator of the secondary market of the stock market, rebounded and turned red at night, and now rose by more than 1%. At one time, it was close to 2% in intraday trading, and once fell by more than 1%.

　　"The fundamental reason for the sharp decline of US stocks is that the valuation is too expensive." Everbright Securities believes that A shares are more immune to overseas fluctuations. Under the analytical framework of the policy economic cycle, it is not only economic data but also policy tightness that determines the market trend. Oil prices fell sharply beyond expectations, reducing the risk of stagflation in the near future and broadening the space for domestic policy easing.

　　Great Wall Securities believes that in the context of global risk assets being sold by funds, the short-term growth of the A-share market is facing emotional selling pressure. In the medium term, China’s securities market shows very obvious value toughness under the background of global general decline, and RMB assets are expected to become a safe haven favored by global funds. (End)

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The rapid development of online financial services How to take the road of transformation of bank outlets？

2024年1月13日 | admin | C3

　　Source: China Banking Association.

　　Cartography: Wang Zheping

　　Zhang Jie, a 26-year-old Beijing citizen, recently went to a bank outlet to do business and found that the outlet downstairs of the company had closed down. "Take the subway to work in the morning, and you can enter the station by scanning the code with the mobile APP bound to the bank card. Shopping can be paid by online banking, and credit card repayment is also through the mobile banking APP. Now I am used to online financial services, and there are fewer and fewer banks. Although there are fewer outlets around me, it has not brought any inconvenience. " Zhang Wei said.

　　In recent years, banks have accelerated the development of online business, and the business volume of online banking and mobile banking has increased rapidly. According to the latest data released by China Banking Association, online banking transactions of banking financial institutions reached 163.784 billion last year, up 7.42% year-on-year, and mobile banking transactions reached 121.451 billion, up 38.88% year-on-year. At the same time, many people have found that the number of bank outlets around them has increased.

　　Under the trend that people are increasingly favoring online financial services, where is the value of offline banking outlets? How to realize the transformation and development of outlets and improve service quality and efficiency? The reporter conducted an investigation and interview.

　　Are bank outlets still important?

　　Bank outlets still play an important role in serving specific people and regions and handling non-standardized business.

　　Why has the situation of bank outlets closed increased? According to several bank managers, more and more consumers like online banking, mobile banking and other online channels, and the proportion of businesses that need to go to the counters of bank outlets is gradually decreasing. The abolition of outlets is mainly due to the lack of customers and low efficiency.

　　In terms of the total amount, by the end of 2019, the total number of outlets of banking financial institutions had reached 228,000, and the number of outlets actually abolished this year only accounted for a small proportion. To meet people’s diversified financial service needs, bank outlets still play an irreplaceable role.

　　Uncle Lu, who lives in Shifosi Village, Yufa Town, Daxing District, Beijing, is over 80 years old and wants to deposit a sum of savings on a regular basis. How many years of products do you have? What is the interest rate? How much interest is it every year? With full of questions, he came to Daxing Xinhangcheng Sub-branch of Ping An Bank not far from home.

　　After understanding Uncle Lu’s needs, the bank staff answered his questions one by one, figured out the fixed interest rate of each file and how much interest he could get each year, listed it in a table, and then explained it in detail.

　　While listening to the explanation and looking at the form, Uncle Lu chose a time deposit that suits him. "You’d better make it clear, but I can’t figure it out myself." Uncle Lu was very happy. "Moreover, I am old, and it is inconvenient to save money with the self-service deposit and withdrawal machine. With the assistance of the staff at the outlets, I am much more practical."

　　Aunt Hai runs a small shop in Yabao Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing. Every month, she goes to the bank outlets to handle business such as change. "Many customers choose to pay in cash. If there is more or less change, they must go to the outlets to exchange it."

　　Sun Anqin, vice president of Ping An Bank Beijing Branch, said that from the perspective of clients, for some elderly people who are not suitable for online banking or other customers who are not good at or willing to do business online, banks can provide them with more thoughtful services by relying on physical outlets.

　　From the perspective of business types, offline outlets still play an irreplaceable role in some non-standardized businesses. "For example, for the service needs of private bank customers’ financial consulting, financial managers need to communicate with customers face to face to meet their differentiated and personalized needs. In addition, due to regulatory requirements and risk prevention needs, bank card opening and enterprise opening bank accounts must also be handled at bank outlets. " Shen Chunhua, general manager of the channel management department of China Everbright Bank, said.

　　"In the past, bank outlets provided customers with a large number of transactional financial services. With the development of online channels and self-service channels, the transaction attributes of outlets have been gradually replaced, and now customers mainly come to outlets because of complex transactions and complex needs. The service of bank outlets is more intuitive, flexible, humanized and professional, and it is still the main channel for banks to sell products and maintain customers. " Wang Haiquan, general manager of the Channel and Operation Management Department of Bank of China, said that in recent years, the average number of customers served by outlets throughout the Bank has stabilized at around 200 million, indicating that outlets still play an important role.

　　From the perspective of regional layout, the coverage of bank outlets is still increasing in areas with weak financial services such as "agriculture, rural areas and farmers". By the end of 2019, banking financial institutions had covered basic financial services to 166,300 administrative villages in 832 key poverty alleviation and development counties through institutional outlets, machine services and mobile services, with a coverage rate of 99.3%.

　　Ceng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory of China Academy of Social Sciences, said that the sinking of bank outlets to the grassroots level has made up for the financial shortcomings in rural areas and can play a positive social benefit. At the same time, with the economic development in rural areas, the demand for financial services is increasing, and there is huge room for development in inclusive finance, and banks themselves will also reap good economic benefits.

　　How to better transform and develop?

　　Many banks are actively exploring in improving service efficiency, expanding service content and changing service methods.

　　People in the industry generally believe that in the future, bank outlets will still occupy an important position in people’s lives, and banks will also rationally adjust the layout of outlets according to actual operating conditions and local service needs. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission clearly pointed out that banking financial institutions should fully investigate the financial market structure, supply and demand of financial services in the new and original locations before changing their business premises, so as to avoid creating a financial service gap.

　　How should bank outlets be transformed? The reporter learned from the investigation that many banks are actively exploring ways to improve service efficiency, expand service content and change service methods.

　　Intelligent, with higher service quality and efficiency — —

　　It used to be a very complicated thing for enterprises to open bank accounts. Prepare a lot of materials, queue up at the bank, fill out a lot of forms, and stamp a lot of official seals … … It often takes a whole day. The research and development of Sunshine E account opening system of China Everbright Bank was launched, which helped customers solve these troubles.

　　"Online booking application for account opening, filling in the industrial and commercial data system, and electronicizing the seal are optimized, which greatly saves the time for account opening." Sun Jihua, the financial controller of a company, said that it took only 40 minutes from entering the bank to opening an account, "much faster than I expected".

　　In recent years, the intelligent transformation of bank outlets is in full swing. You can withdraw money with your mobile phone without a bank card; The whole money and change can be stored together, and self-service equipment can also be handled; Bank card can realize fast card exchange with the same number & HELIP; … A variety of intelligent services constantly improve the customer experience of bank outlets. The insiders believe that making full use of scientific and technological means, developing intelligent equipment and tools, and upgrading offline outlets will improve the service efficiency and quality of outlets.

　　At the same time, the machine replaces the manual to complete some tedious processes, which is conducive to allowing more staff to walk out of the counter and provide accurate services according to the differentiated needs of customers.

　　Integrated and diversified services are introduced — —

　　While promoting intelligence, bank outlets are also paying attention to integrating into demand scenarios, expanding service content and giving full play to service functions.

　　"China Everbright Bank actively promotes the comprehensive transformation of banking outlets, giving outlets cultural services, tourism consultation, health management and other functions." Shen Chunhua said that Guangzhou Yuexiu Sub-branch of China Everbright Bank, as the host bank of medical insurance business in Guangzhou, has an average daily passenger flow of about 500 people, much higher than the average level of the whole bank. At present, the branch serves more than 10 million medical insurance customers.

　　Bank of China Guangzhou Lujiang Sub-branch cooperates with the local library to open a special reading area at the outlets, and books can be borrowed and returned at the outlets. In Jie Fangbei Business District, a tourist hotspot in Chongqing, Ping An Bank Chongqing Jie Fangbei Sub-branch has launched cultural and creative products, and will also introduce reading corners. Some rural bank outlets can also provide express delivery and other services.

　　"In the future, the spare space of outlets can be diversified and transformed into a place for customers to consult and exchange, share learning, share office, and carry out community activities." Wang Haiquan said.

　　Be more proactive, and banking services will go out — —

　　Not long ago, the Chinese Business School of Guangdong University of Finance and Economics ushered in the opening season. The staff of China Bank Guangdong Zengcheng Sub-branch took five mobile smart counters to the school to provide on-site financial services for teachers and students. Teacher Huang of the school said that in the past, card opening and mobile banking had to be handled at bank outlets, but now the bank provides on-site service, which can be completed in just a few minutes.

　　"With technical support, banking service equipment is more intelligent and portable, and it is possible to take it out, so that customers can enjoy more convenient financial services." Wang Haiquan said.

　　In order to let people in mountainous areas enjoy more adequate financial services, Fujian has explored the "backpack bank" business model. "Bank account managers carry backpacks, install equipment into the village, and promote financial services door to door." The person in charge of the Fuzhou Central Branch of the People’s Bank of China said that the "backpack bank" sent loans to the countryside and sent funds "timely rain" to the people.

　　How to collaborate online and offline?

　　The advantages of online business and offline outlets are complementary and integrated, and the efficiency of financial services is continuously improved.

　　For banks, it is an important problem to deal with the relationship between online and offline business. Ceng Gang believes that the rapid development of online business will not replace the important role of bank outlets. In the future, online business and offline outlets will complement each other and develop together to continuously improve the efficiency of financial services.

　　Online and offline collaborative development can make business handling more convenient.

　　In the past, the counting and identification of foreign currency cash had to be done under the witness of customers, and the staff of outlets had to complete a series of processes step by step, such as customer identity verification, cash withdrawal amount verification, money withdrawal, foreign management information registration and cash counting, which often took more than half an hour. At present, Bank of China has launched the foreign currency smart access service, and customers can make an appointment to withdraw foreign currency cash through online channels such as mobile banking and micro-banking. The back-office vault will immediately receive the order information, allocate foreign currency cash according to customers’ needs, seal it in a standard envelope, and deliver it to the appointment outlets. After customers arrive at the store offline, they can go directly to the smart counter for self-service without queuing to get the number, which takes only one or two minutes.

　　Online and offline collaborative development can provide customers with more choices.

　　"When issuing income certificates, asset certificates and other materials, customers can flexibly choose the handling method according to their own needs. If the customer does not have time to go to the bank outlet, he can apply for a certificate online and send it to the customer; If customers need to use it urgently or need an on-site seal, they can also go to the outlets to handle it quickly and collect it on the spot. " Sun anqin said.

　　"The rapid development of online business has greatly promoted the transformation and upgrading of bank outlets." Wang Haiquan said that on the one hand, online business can effectively divert the standardized business of previous outlets, so that the manpower of outlets can be invested in more professional and personalized services; On the other hand, the development of online business is conducive to enhancing user experience, increasing customer stickiness, enhancing brand influence and better promoting the development of offline business.

　　The insiders believe that no matter which channel customers access from online or offline, customers should feel the undifferentiated and integrated service experience. Through the integration and development of online and offline services, increasing data sharing, and combining big data, artificial intelligence and other technical means, it is conducive to building a more complete and three-dimensional customer portrait and achieving accurate and caring services.

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How can Zhejiang tea brands become ＂excellent students＂ and the top ten tea brands in the province set up ＂alliance＂

2024年1月11日 | admin | C3
Chao News Client Reporter Xu Zhixuan Xie Yanqing Huang Wangqiao
Zhejiang is the world’s tea town, and China’s tea fragrance floats in the world. On the afternoon of January 8th, as one of the important activities of the first annual meeting of China tea brand culture, the first tea brand development forum and Xinchang Tianmu Tea Party were held in Xinchang, Shaoxing. The guests at the meeting drank three good Xinchang teas and discussed the development of Zhejiang tea brands. This activity is sponsored by China International Tea Culture Research Association, zhejiang daily press group and Xinchang County People’s Government.
Forum site
As one of the major tea-producing provinces in China, Zhejiang is rich in tea resources, and the tea culture is rich in content, diverse in forms, long in history and profound in foundation. Over the years, Zhejiang Province has adhered to the concept of coordinated development of tea culture, tea industry and tea science and technology, and made great efforts to promote the high-quality development of tea industry. In order to further enhance the brand advantage and make Zhejiang tea brand famous, this forum invited representatives of famous tea brands in Zhejiang Province to share their experiences in brand development, build a big platform for Zhejiang tea brand promotion, and build a big stage for exchange, cooperation and sharing, so as to provide effective experience for the high-quality development of tea industry in Zhejiang and even the whole country.
"As the leading brand of tea in Xinchang County, Giant Buddha Longjing has won more than 100 national gold medals and was rated as’ the most spreading brand’." Yuan Zhenhua, president of Xinchang County Tea Culture Research Association and former vice chairman of Xinchang County Political Consultative Conference, introduced the course and effect of the brand development of Giant Buddha Longjing. Over the years, Xinchang has always practiced the development concept of "three teas as a whole", focused on the overall goal of "building a tea industry of 10 billion yuan and creating the first county of Longjing", strengthened policy support, strong scientific and technological support, strong brand cultivation and strong tea tourism integration. It is the main origin of Longjing tea in China, built the largest Longjing tea trading market in China, and formed the first batch of tea demonstration industrial chains in the province. In this context, the influence of the brand of Giant Buddha Longjing Tea is expanding, the marketing is improving and the brand value is rising.
Tea ceremony
Tea is one of the dominant industries with the widest geographical distribution and the strongest economic benefits in Zhejiang. There are 70 tea-related industries in 90 counties in Zhejiang. For a long time, Zhejiang has kept in mind the entrustment, adhered to the goal of "eco-efficient, characteristic boutique", and worked out how a veritable Zhejiang tea brand can become an "excellent student". Under the new background of "three teas" as a whole, how can Zhejiang tea last forever and continue to float around the world? At the event site, representatives of traditional famous teas in Zhejiang Province, such as Longjing Tea, Anji White Tea, Songyang Silver Monkey and Gold Award Huiming Tea, shared the "development secrets" of their respective tea brands.
"The key to the high-quality development of Longjing tea is to build a high-quality corporate brand cluster." Lu Debiao, chief tea expert of Zhejiang Provincial Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, believes that the core of a high-quality Longjing tea brand cluster lies in doing a good job of "soil, specialty and production", deeply rooted in "soil", growing stronger because of "specialty" and taking advantage of "production"; Focusing on industry leadership will make the road of tea farmers’ common prosperity more and more solid, focusing on standards will make the road of tea farmers’ common prosperity more and more stable, and focusing on brand promotion will make the road of tea farmers’ common prosperity wider and wider. Xiao Jiaqing, a member of the Party Group of Anji County People’s Government, used three "focuses" to reveal how Anji White Tea enriched one side of the people through "a leaf"; "40% of the population in Songyang County is engaged in the tea industry, 50% of farmers’ income comes from the tea industry, and 60% of agricultural output value comes from the tea industry. Liao Baoyun, the total chain length of tea industry chain in Songyang county and chairman of Songyang CPPCC, revealed the importance of tea industry to Songyang with "456" as the entry point, and introduced two county tea public brands: Songyang Yinhou and Songyang Xiangcha. Iterate the top-level design to fully unite the consensus of promoting tea together. Deepening the connotation of quality and improving the industrial chain, Zhang Lian, deputy head of the People’s Government of Jingning She Autonomous County, shared two "cheats" for the brand of Huiming Tea to become bigger and stronger.
"Zhejiang Tea Brand Alliance Seen from the World Tea Town" was established.
Over the years, Zhejiang Province has thoroughly implemented the concept of "three teas" as a whole, always adhered to the goal of "eco-efficient, characteristic boutique", devoted itself to promoting the cultivation of tea brands, and formed a unique brand cluster. Zhejiang’s outstanding tea brands have always played a leading and exemplary role, driving tea farmers to be rich together, leading the industrial upgrading and running out of the acceleration of common prosperity. At the event site, representatives of outstanding Zhejiang tea brands from Xinchang, Zhuji and Hangzhou started an exchange dialogue.
It is worth mentioning that in order to strengthen the development of famous tea brands, vigorously implement the "double strength" work of tea industry, and ensure the quality and brand of tea, this forum invited ten tea brands in the province to jointly establish the "Zhejiang Tea Brand Alliance in the World Tea Town". In the future, the alliance will further promote the overall planning of "three teas", "integration of three industries" and "six teas dancing together", comprehensively improve the quality and efficiency of the tea industry and the ability of sustainable development, and continue to polish the golden business card of "Zhejiang as a world tea town" to provide more Zhejiang experience for the overall development of "three teas" in China.
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New rules for online catering are released： takeaway merchants should have physical stores, which will take effect on New Year’s Day next year.

2024年1月7日 | admin | C3

　　CCTV News:On the 10th, china food and drug administration issued the Measures for Food Safety Supervision and Management of Online Catering Services (hereinafter referred to as the Measures). The "Measures" stipulate that catering service providers should have physical stores and obtain food business licenses according to law, and must not operate beyond the scope.

　　There are 46 Measures, which will be implemented on January 1, 2018.

　　According to the Measures,The catering service provider shall have the entity to operate the store and obtain the food business license according to law, and engage in business activities according to the main format and business items specified in the food business license, and shall not operate beyond the scope.

　　The catering service provider shall publicize the names of dishes and main raw materials online, and the information publicized shall be true.

　　The measures also stipulate that catering service providers should process food in their own processing operation areas.The order shall not be entrusted to other food operators for processing and production.The catering food sold online should be consistent with the quality and safety of catering food sold in physical stores.

　　According to the Measures,The third-party platform provider of online catering service shall examine the food business license of the online catering service provider,Register the name, address, legal representative or person in charge and contact information of the catering service provider, and ensure the authenticity of the license information such as the business premises specified in the food business license of the catering service provider.

　　Third-party platform for online catering serviceThe provider shall set up a special food safety management organization and be equipped with full-time food safety management personnel.Training and assessment of food safety management personnel every year.

　　The third-party platform provider of online catering service and the catering service provider of self-built website should be on the main page of catering service business activities,Publicize the food business license of the catering service provider.

　　The third-party platform provider of online catering service shallSpot check and monitor the business behavior of catering service providers in the network.

　　Food delivery process: containers are cleaned and disinfected regularly to avoid direct contact with food by food delivery personnel.

　　The "Measures" put forward clear requirements for food delivery personnel and food delivery process.

　　The "Measures" stipulate that:Food delivery personnel should maintain personal hygiene, use safe and harmless delivery containers, keep the containers clean, and carry out regular cleaning and disinfection;

　　 Internet catering service providers shall use non-toxic and clean food containers, tableware and packaging materials, andPackage catering food to avoid direct contact with food by food delivery personnel.Ensure that the food is not contaminated during the delivery process;

　　Where food with special requirements such as preservation, heat preservation, refrigeration or freezing is distributed, preservation and distribution measures that can ensure food safety shall be taken. Encourage third-party platform providers of online catering services to provide degradable food containers, tableware and packaging materials.

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Shanghai： the construction site will run faster without stopping during the New Year holiday.

2024年1月1日 | admin | C3

00:52
During the New Year holiday, workers in many construction sites in Shanghai took root and did not stop working.
With the completion of the basement main structure construction in S1 and S4 areas, the new project of Shanghai Songjiang Station Service Center, which was built by China Railway 24th Bureau, has entered the construction stage of the above-ground main structure in an all-round way, and it is planned to be opened simultaneously with the Shanghai-Suzhou-Huzhou Railway.
The reconstruction and expansion project of University of Shanghai for Science and Technology undertaken by East China Company of China Construction Second Bureau is in full swing. The total construction area of the project is about 60,000 square meters. The demolition of the first batch of buildings has been completed in the early stage. At present, the pile foundation work of student apartments and teaching buildings is being carried out on site. The builders will use holidays to speed up the construction progress and minimize the impact of pile foundation equipment noise on the teaching of teachers and students in the school.
Reporter: Di Chun
Produced by Audio and Video Department of Xinhua News Agency
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Chen Feng： The difficult stage of the Gaza war has just begun.

2023年12月26日 | admin | C3
[Text/Observer Network columnist Chen Feng]
After the failure to extend the ceasefire, Hamas resumed launching rockets, and the Israeli army resumed indiscriminate bombing and ground attack. The fighting continued, but the focus turned to southern Gaza. At present, the Israeli army has not completely controlled the northern Gaza, including the "Hamas town" jabari Ya refugee camp, and has not turned to large-scale anti-tunnel operations. But to destroy Hamas and control the north, the Israeli army must first control the south of Gaza.
The main purpose of the Israeli military action is to destroy Hamas, claiming that at least 10 of Hamas’s 24 combat battalions have been hit hard, and more than 50 middle-ranking commanders and about 5,000 militants have been killed. Hamas is still firing rockets and fighting fiercely with the Israeli army in Khan Younis. Obviously, Hamas is far from being destroyed. Even in order to find out the obvious main force of Hamas and completely eliminate the rocket threat of Hamas, the Israeli army must attack southern Gaza.
Hamas is highly dependent on the tunnel system, which can not only hide underground, but also attack and transfer through tunnels. Tunnels may be denser in northern Gaza, but only by controlling the whole Gaza can we talk about covering the whole tunnel system, and it is possible to systematically clear tunnels, otherwise it will become a whack-a-mole.
However, it can be seen that it took a long time for the Israeli army to finally March into northern Gaza, precisely because of the difficulty of combat operations. The fighting in southern Gaza will be more difficult, and civilian casualties are a big problem.
According to the data released by the health department of the Gaza Strip in Palestine on the 2nd, since the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict on October 7th, Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip have killed more than 15,000 Palestinians, injured more than 40,000 people, and 75% of the victims are women and children.
During the humanitarian pause, a man took his children through the bombed area of Gaza.
The Israeli army’s indiscriminate killing of innocent people has also aroused strong opposition in Europe and the United States, especially among intellectuals who have traditionally favored liberalism. The US Congress actually needs to summon the heads of major universities to "crush" the anti-Israel sentiment in the school. The BBC is even more anti-biased towards Israel, reporting extensively on the atrocities committed by the Israeli army and the suffering of the people in Gaza.
From Biden and Harris to blinken and Austin, the United States has repeatedly put pressure on Israel, clearly pointing out that Israel has the right to self-defense, but it cannot arbitrarily expand the exercise of its right to self-defense, demanding that the Israeli army should exercise restraint in its actions in southern Gaza, delimit a clear operational area before its actions, and pay special attention to protecting civilians. Austin warned with his own experience as commander of the war on terror: "If civilians are pushed into the arms of the enemy, the result will not be tactical victory but strategic failure."
A large number of officials in the U.S. government believe that the Gaza war has brought policy disaster and moral disaster to the United States. The United States can neither give up its support for Israel, nor can it afford the pot of anti-humanity. At the same time, the failure of Israel is the failure of the United States.
European countries are more intense. UN Secretary-General Gutierrez from Portugal pointed out that Hamas’s attack was not without reason. Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez suggested that Israel might commit war crimes in Gaza, but the attitudes of other countries just couldn’t get through this hurdle.
From Israel’s point of view, the support of the United States and Europe is priceless, but the pressure from the United States and Europe is cheap. To destroy Hamas, only "I would rather kill three thousand by mistake than let one go". Senior Israeli military officials are complacent about "only two civilians are killed for every Hamas killed", which shows this mentality. This may be exactly what Netanyahu meant when he mentioned that the Gaza war was "Israel’s second war of independence": Israel would rather disobey the United States and Europe and kill Hamas completely.
But Israel also realizes that this cannot be achieved quickly. On December 2, the Financial Times reported that sources said that Israel was prepared to fight for a year or more. The Israeli army plans to go deep into southern Gaza, trying to kill three Hamas leaders: Yahya Sinwar, the supreme leader, Mohammed Deif, the commander of Hamas Kasang Brigade, and Marwan Issa, his deputy.
At the same time, even if according to the Israeli army’s estimate, 10 battalions of Hamas were badly hit and about 5,000 people were killed, there are 24 battalions of Hamas, with 20,000-25,000 members, and even an estimated 40,000. Senior Israeli military officials admitted in an interview that "this will be a long-term battle … we are less than half way to achieving our goal."
The next two or three months will be the most intense stage of ground operations, and then it will enter the stage of "transition and stability", which may last until the end of 2024. This stage will prepare for the establishment of a new post-war order in Gaza without Hamas.
"No Hamas" is the key word. How to prevent Hamas from making a comeback in Gaza after the war has always been Israel’s biggest problem. Netanyahu thought about occupying Gaza indefinitely, and Biden immediately warned clearly that "this matter cannot be done"! Israel still refuses to consider the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority to manage Gaza, but this is exactly what the United States is pushing hard.
Israel’s doubts are not unreasonable. The last general election in Palestine (including Gaza and the West Bank) was in 2006, when Hamas won 40% of the votes. It is generally believed that if it is re-elected, it will get more votes. Abbas repeatedly postponed the re-election with the acquiescence of the United States and Israel in order to avoid the embarrassment of being elected by Hamas. Therefore, any statement that Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people is untenable. Hamas does not represent all Palestinians, but it represents a considerable number of Palestinians, and may gain wider support after the raid on October 7.
Now Hamas has an overwhelming appeal not only in Gaza, but also in the West Bank. In the "hostage for ceasefire", Hamas used the release of hostages to force Israel to release a large number of Palestinian civilians, mainly Palestinians in the West Bank. If it weren’t for Hamas, many of them might be detained indefinitely by Israel and abused in Israeli prisons for a long time. Most of them have never been tried, so there is no sentence.
After the Gaza War, compared with Fatah, which was corrupt at home and did nothing about Israel, Hamas, which was clean and courageous, saw its prestige among Palestinians surge. It is not inconceivable that Hamas completely "subverts" Fatah’s rule, including the West Bank. This also means that Fatah not only can’t represent Gaza, but its rule in the West Bank is becoming more and more unstable. It is unrealistic to expect Fatah-led Palestinian Authority to control Gaza. It is the biggest nightmare for Israel and the United States that the Palestinian Authority will eventually be dominated by Hamas.
The United States is also aware that the Palestinian Authority is weak, but it is still trying to promote some kind of reorganization and "rejuvenation" while preserving the Palestinian Authority structure, because this is the most realistic and feasible power structure. However, before the reorganized Palestinian Authority takes over the governance of Gaza, international peacekeeping forces are still needed to take charge of public security, and who will send troops remains a big problem.
The invasion of troops by Europe and the United States is bound to be fiercely resisted by Gazans, and may even be attacked by the US Marine Corps Beirut Barracks. Arab countries not only have to bear the burden of "traitors" when sending troops, but also can’t pass the domestic customs at first, and when there is a conflict between Palestinians and Jews, no matter which side they stand on, they will be strongly condemned by the other side. The handing over of security in Gaza to international peacekeeping forces only hands over Israel’s unsolved problems to peacekeeping participating countries, which is doomed to be a big crime and thankless, and no one is stupid.
Israel has other plans, trying to get the cooperation of Egypt, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to establish a buffer zone along the Gaza border to block the infiltration of Hamas. This is wishful thinking. The buffer zone needs to have a certain depth, otherwise it cannot be buffered. However, Gaza has no depth at all, with a total width of only 6-10 kilometers, which is occupied by the buffer zone and has no living space. This is not allowed by international public opinion and the reality in Gaza.
If there are residents in the buffer zone, Hamas, which is hidden among civilians, can easily enter and leave, and no one can ensure the demilitarization of the buffer zone. If the buffer zone is a no-man’s land, where will the Gazans who are already seriously lacking living space go? The buffer zone also needs to be monitored by neutral armed forces, which is back to the international peacekeeping force. Nobody wants to be such a sucker.
Israel’s deadlock lies in the fact that Hamas is not so much an organization as an idea. Even if there is a miracle, the Israeli army will wipe out the Hamas personnel in Gaza, and it will not eliminate the influence of Hamas except creating a large number of martyrs. Not to mention the existence of Hamas outside Gaza, the ideas that Hamas represents cannot be destroyed by weapons.
In fact, the expansion of Hamas’s influence in the West Bank may be the most worrying thing for Israel. Once "Hamas", the West Bank is a more complicated security challenge than Gaza.
The West Bank of Jordan River is on the Arab side of the 1948 armistice line ("Green Line"), and it is also internationally (including the United States) recognized Palestinian land. However, the West Bank has been divided by a large number of Jewish settlements and Israeli-controlled corridors, and Palestinians are forced to huddle on "isolated islands", surrounded by Israeli-controlled areas and Jewish settlements, and "isolated islands" need to pass checkpoints controlled by the Israeli army.
At present, the situation in the West Bank of Jordan River is as follows: the dark green area is fully controlled by Palestine, the light green area is responsible for civil affairs and the Israeli army is responsible for public security, the light yellow area is fully controlled by Israel, the orange-red area is under the control of the Israeli army, the orange-red diagonal area is a shoot-to-kill area with the Israeli army, and the dark gray area is a Jewish settlement; The dark gray thin line is the 1948 ceasefire line ("green line"); In Hebron, the Palestinian authority is responsible for civil affairs, but half of the public security is in the charge of Palestine and the other half is in the charge of the Israeli army. What is not clearly marked is the whole of East Jerusalem, which was unilaterally annexed by Israel in disregard of international law.
Even in "peacetime", Palestinian residential areas and Jewish settlements are intertwined, and a large number of civil conflicts mainly involving land occupation, water resources and crossing rights occur. After the outbreak of the Gaza war, hatred between Jews and Palestinians surged and armed conflicts surged. Once the angry Palestinians are organized and armed by Hamas, a full-scale scuffle with armed Jewish settlers will be triggered.
Moreover, this is not a linear conflict along the border like Gaza, but an all-round flowering in the whole West Bank. It will be an incredible disaster for Arab residents who are all soldiers and Jewish settlers who are all soldiers to fight to the death.
The United States is not without worries about this.
Israel will not be destroyed, but the United States will definitely bear the burden of a long-term war. This is a heavier burden than Ukraine.
No matter whether it is reoccupation or blockade, Gaza is a complete piece, and the military issue is relatively simple. However, if the West Bank is to be fully occupied, the Israeli army does not have enough troops; It is necessary to divide the troops according to the status quo, and the Israeli army forces are more important. The reserve recruitment of more than 300,000 people is not enough, and the bigger problem is the need for long-term recruitment.
Israel’s economy has been shut down because of reserve recruitment, and long-term recruitment is unbearable. In 2021, Israel’s GDP was $488.5 billion. Even if the United States only needs to subsidize a quarter, it will be $120 billion a year. The population of Israel is smaller than that of Ukraine, but its living standard is higher and its expenses are higher. This has not been included in the cost of combat operations.
Statistical chart of Israel’s GDP and growth rate in 2011-2021
The United States has to bear the burden reluctantly, but this is also the last burden that the United States needs. The American economy is turning cold, and "Black Friday" is traditionally a popular moment before Christmas, but this year’s "Black Friday" performance is bleak. The biggest chill comes from employment. The salary increase in October is only 0.1%, which means that employment is getting colder, which is a precursor to the continuous cooling of consumption. American consumption accounts for 2/3 of GDP, and the cooling of consumption is no small matter.
2024 is an election year, and Ukraine has become a big burden for the United States, and the end of the war is far away. It may not be the direct focus of party struggle in Congress if Israel is carried on its back, but it is bound to be the focus of party struggle to make up for the western wall of Israel and which eastern wall needs to be torn down. Biden’s political capital is not enough, and it is really inappropriate to be "defeated" by Israel.
Due to the extensive domestic political pressure, it is difficult for Europe to help Israel like Ukraine, no matter how enthusiastic Ursula von der Leyen is to be the "Israelis tonight". Let’s just say that the huge Muslim population in Europe overwhelmingly supports Palestine and opposes Israel. The mainstream society in Europe also has a strong criticism of Israel in the Gaza War, not to mention that Europe’s economic difficulties are greater than those in the United States.
Japan and South Korea have been "apportioned" with the heavy task of assisting Ukraine and have no spare capacity to support Israel.
All this assumes that the Israeli army can successfully fight in southern Gaza, end major battles within a few months, and basically destroy Hamas’ tunnel system throughout Gaza. This is a huge assumption.
Hamas has long been prepared for a large-scale invasion by the Israeli army and is determined to die. Before the Israeli army controlled all the surface positions in northern Gaza, jabari Ya refugee camp did not enter, and its control over Gaza City was unclear. However, the fighting in southern Gaza is more complicated, and the problem of civilian casualties is unbearable.
The original residents in the north and refugees from the south may make civilian casualties far more than those in northern Gaza. Now that the international community has been highly angry about the civilian casualties in Gaza, this is a huge problem for Israel.
It is impossible to drive the refugees back. The median age of the population in Gaza is only 18 years old. If a large number of refugees return to northern Gaza, they will inevitably be mixed with a large number of Hamas personnel. Screening is impossible, and it is even more impossible to draw a line by age. What is lacking in the tunnel is people, not weapons. If unarmed Hamas in the south meets left-behind Hamas in the north, the Israeli army will have wasted all its efforts.
If Hamas does not hesitate to sacrifice everything, it will drag the Israeli army to Gaza and cause the greatest casualties. The situation facing the Israeli army in the coming months will be very arduous. Not only the increasing casualties have a great impact on the hearts of Israelis, but the martyred Hamas has actually achieved its ultimate goal: to awaken the Palestinian people with fierce resistance and sacrifice.
This is exactly what Austin warned: "Pushing civilians into the enemy’s arms will not result in tactical victory but strategic victory."
But the Gaza war is a war that Israel has to fight in and doesn’t know how to end it.
First of all, it’s about Netanyahu. As an Israeli leader who plays the national security card again and again, it is unforgivable to let Israel suffer such a sudden attack on October 7. In order to save his political life, he needs to avenge Israel and himself with a strong wartime leader attitude.
Netanyahu said that Israel will continue to fight until the goal is achieved (Source: Wall Street Journal)
But the Gaza war not only needs to destroy Hamas, it is immediate revenge; It is even more necessary to solve the Gaza problem once and for all, so that Israel will no longer be threatened by similar threats.
Hamas represents Palestinians’ anti-Israel thoughts and survival plots, which are widely distributed not only in Gaza, but also in the West Bank. It is useless to physically destroy Hamas, which was originally "made out of nothing" and was established in the first Palestinian uprising in 1987-91.
The first Palestinian uprising forced Israel to face up to the issue of Palestinian rights, which eventually led to the Oslo agreement in 1993. Rabin and Arafat achieved a historic handshake, but in the end they fell short. Since then, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been intermittent, and it is the latest and biggest outbreak.
When Netanyahu was re-elected as prime minister in 2009, he publicly promised not to repeat the "mistake" of unilateral withdrawal from Gaza (as required by the Oslo agreement) because "unilateral withdrawal has brought neither peace nor security". However, before the Oslo agreement, Israeli military control of Gaza did not bring peace and security, and the garrison and protection of Jewish settlements (there were 21 settlements and about 8,000 Jewish settlers in northern Gaza before the final dismantling) became unbearable.
More than a decade later, Hamas has been integrated with 2.3 million Gazans, and it can be rebuilt even if its military organization and political structure are eliminated. The source of Hamas’s strength is not a few people and guns, but anti-Israel thoughts and survival plots. Hamas or the "next Hamas" cannot be eliminated unless all Gazans are physically eliminated. Even if all Gazans are driven to Sinai, it will only push the conflict line in a limited way and not solve the problem. It was precisely because of this that the Israeli army withdrew from Gaza that it took a step back, disengaged and strictly controlled Hamas or similar threats. But the Hamas raid on October 7 proved that this is not enough.
In fact, this is not only a problem of Netanyahu, but also a problem of the whole country of Israel. The Gaza war only smeared this issue on the faces of all Israelis, and it can no longer be avoided.
The Gaza war can end the fighting, but it cannot end the war. This is the most difficult problem in the Gaza war.
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