Chen Feng： The difficult stage of the Gaza war has just begun.
[Text/Observer Network columnist Chen Feng]
After the failure to extend the ceasefire, Hamas resumed launching rockets, and the Israeli army resumed indiscriminate bombing and ground attack. The fighting continued, but the focus turned to southern Gaza. At present, the Israeli army has not completely controlled the northern Gaza, including the "Hamas town" jabari Ya refugee camp, and has not turned to large-scale anti-tunnel operations. But to destroy Hamas and control the north, the Israeli army must first control the south of Gaza.
The main purpose of the Israeli military action is to destroy Hamas, claiming that at least 10 of Hamas’s 24 combat battalions have been hit hard, and more than 50 middle-ranking commanders and about 5,000 militants have been killed. Hamas is still firing rockets and fighting fiercely with the Israeli army in Khan Younis. Obviously, Hamas is far from being destroyed. Even in order to find out the obvious main force of Hamas and completely eliminate the rocket threat of Hamas, the Israeli army must attack southern Gaza.
Hamas is highly dependent on the tunnel system, which can not only hide underground, but also attack and transfer through tunnels. Tunnels may be denser in northern Gaza, but only by controlling the whole Gaza can we talk about covering the whole tunnel system, and it is possible to systematically clear tunnels, otherwise it will become a whack-a-mole.
However, it can be seen that it took a long time for the Israeli army to finally March into northern Gaza, precisely because of the difficulty of combat operations. The fighting in southern Gaza will be more difficult, and civilian casualties are a big problem.
According to the data released by the health department of the Gaza Strip in Palestine on the 2nd, since the outbreak of a new round of Palestinian-Israeli conflict on October 7th, Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip have killed more than 15,000 Palestinians, injured more than 40,000 people, and 75% of the victims are women and children.
During the humanitarian pause, a man took his children through the bombed area of Gaza.
The Israeli army’s indiscriminate killing of innocent people has also aroused strong opposition in Europe and the United States, especially among intellectuals who have traditionally favored liberalism. The US Congress actually needs to summon the heads of major universities to "crush" the anti-Israel sentiment in the school. The BBC is even more anti-biased towards Israel, reporting extensively on the atrocities committed by the Israeli army and the suffering of the people in Gaza.
From Biden and Harris to blinken and Austin, the United States has repeatedly put pressure on Israel, clearly pointing out that Israel has the right to self-defense, but it cannot arbitrarily expand the exercise of its right to self-defense, demanding that the Israeli army should exercise restraint in its actions in southern Gaza, delimit a clear operational area before its actions, and pay special attention to protecting civilians. Austin warned with his own experience as commander of the war on terror: "If civilians are pushed into the arms of the enemy, the result will not be tactical victory but strategic failure."
A large number of officials in the U.S. government believe that the Gaza war has brought policy disaster and moral disaster to the United States. The United States can neither give up its support for Israel, nor can it afford the pot of anti-humanity. At the same time, the failure of Israel is the failure of the United States.
European countries are more intense. UN Secretary-General Gutierrez from Portugal pointed out that Hamas’s attack was not without reason. Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez suggested that Israel might commit war crimes in Gaza, but the attitudes of other countries just couldn’t get through this hurdle.
From Israel’s point of view, the support of the United States and Europe is priceless, but the pressure from the United States and Europe is cheap. To destroy Hamas, only "I would rather kill three thousand by mistake than let one go". Senior Israeli military officials are complacent about "only two civilians are killed for every Hamas killed", which shows this mentality. This may be exactly what Netanyahu meant when he mentioned that the Gaza war was "Israel’s second war of independence": Israel would rather disobey the United States and Europe and kill Hamas completely.
But Israel also realizes that this cannot be achieved quickly. On December 2, the Financial Times reported that sources said that Israel was prepared to fight for a year or more. The Israeli army plans to go deep into southern Gaza, trying to kill three Hamas leaders: Yahya Sinwar, the supreme leader, Mohammed Deif, the commander of Hamas Kasang Brigade, and Marwan Issa, his deputy.
At the same time, even if according to the Israeli army’s estimate, 10 battalions of Hamas were badly hit and about 5,000 people were killed, there are 24 battalions of Hamas, with 20,000-25,000 members, and even an estimated 40,000. Senior Israeli military officials admitted in an interview that "this will be a long-term battle … we are less than half way to achieving our goal."
The next two or three months will be the most intense stage of ground operations, and then it will enter the stage of "transition and stability", which may last until the end of 2024. This stage will prepare for the establishment of a new post-war order in Gaza without Hamas.
"No Hamas" is the key word. How to prevent Hamas from making a comeback in Gaza after the war has always been Israel’s biggest problem. Netanyahu thought about occupying Gaza indefinitely, and Biden immediately warned clearly that "this matter cannot be done"! Israel still refuses to consider the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority to manage Gaza, but this is exactly what the United States is pushing hard.
Israel’s doubts are not unreasonable. The last general election in Palestine (including Gaza and the West Bank) was in 2006, when Hamas won 40% of the votes. It is generally believed that if it is re-elected, it will get more votes. Abbas repeatedly postponed the re-election with the acquiescence of the United States and Israel in order to avoid the embarrassment of being elected by Hamas. Therefore, any statement that Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people is untenable. Hamas does not represent all Palestinians, but it represents a considerable number of Palestinians, and may gain wider support after the raid on October 7.
Now Hamas has an overwhelming appeal not only in Gaza, but also in the West Bank. In the "hostage for ceasefire", Hamas used the release of hostages to force Israel to release a large number of Palestinian civilians, mainly Palestinians in the West Bank. If it weren’t for Hamas, many of them might be detained indefinitely by Israel and abused in Israeli prisons for a long time. Most of them have never been tried, so there is no sentence.
After the Gaza War, compared with Fatah, which was corrupt at home and did nothing about Israel, Hamas, which was clean and courageous, saw its prestige among Palestinians surge. It is not inconceivable that Hamas completely "subverts" Fatah’s rule, including the West Bank. This also means that Fatah not only can’t represent Gaza, but its rule in the West Bank is becoming more and more unstable. It is unrealistic to expect Fatah-led Palestinian Authority to control Gaza. It is the biggest nightmare for Israel and the United States that the Palestinian Authority will eventually be dominated by Hamas.
The United States is also aware that the Palestinian Authority is weak, but it is still trying to promote some kind of reorganization and "rejuvenation" while preserving the Palestinian Authority structure, because this is the most realistic and feasible power structure. However, before the reorganized Palestinian Authority takes over the governance of Gaza, international peacekeeping forces are still needed to take charge of public security, and who will send troops remains a big problem.
The invasion of troops by Europe and the United States is bound to be fiercely resisted by Gazans, and may even be attacked by the US Marine Corps Beirut Barracks. Arab countries not only have to bear the burden of "traitors" when sending troops, but also can’t pass the domestic customs at first, and when there is a conflict between Palestinians and Jews, no matter which side they stand on, they will be strongly condemned by the other side. The handing over of security in Gaza to international peacekeeping forces only hands over Israel’s unsolved problems to peacekeeping participating countries, which is doomed to be a big crime and thankless, and no one is stupid.
Israel has other plans, trying to get the cooperation of Egypt, Jordan, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to establish a buffer zone along the Gaza border to block the infiltration of Hamas. This is wishful thinking. The buffer zone needs to have a certain depth, otherwise it cannot be buffered. However, Gaza has no depth at all, with a total width of only 6-10 kilometers, which is occupied by the buffer zone and has no living space. This is not allowed by international public opinion and the reality in Gaza.
If there are residents in the buffer zone, Hamas, which is hidden among civilians, can easily enter and leave, and no one can ensure the demilitarization of the buffer zone. If the buffer zone is a no-man’s land, where will the Gazans who are already seriously lacking living space go? The buffer zone also needs to be monitored by neutral armed forces, which is back to the international peacekeeping force. Nobody wants to be such a sucker.
Israel’s deadlock lies in the fact that Hamas is not so much an organization as an idea. Even if there is a miracle, the Israeli army will wipe out the Hamas personnel in Gaza, and it will not eliminate the influence of Hamas except creating a large number of martyrs. Not to mention the existence of Hamas outside Gaza, the ideas that Hamas represents cannot be destroyed by weapons.
In fact, the expansion of Hamas’s influence in the West Bank may be the most worrying thing for Israel. Once "Hamas", the West Bank is a more complicated security challenge than Gaza.
The West Bank of Jordan River is on the Arab side of the 1948 armistice line ("Green Line"), and it is also internationally (including the United States) recognized Palestinian land. However, the West Bank has been divided by a large number of Jewish settlements and Israeli-controlled corridors, and Palestinians are forced to huddle on "isolated islands", surrounded by Israeli-controlled areas and Jewish settlements, and "isolated islands" need to pass checkpoints controlled by the Israeli army.
At present, the situation in the West Bank of Jordan River is as follows: the dark green area is fully controlled by Palestine, the light green area is responsible for civil affairs and the Israeli army is responsible for public security, the light yellow area is fully controlled by Israel, the orange-red area is under the control of the Israeli army, the orange-red diagonal area is a shoot-to-kill area with the Israeli army, and the dark gray area is a Jewish settlement; The dark gray thin line is the 1948 ceasefire line ("green line"); In Hebron, the Palestinian authority is responsible for civil affairs, but half of the public security is in the charge of Palestine and the other half is in the charge of the Israeli army. What is not clearly marked is the whole of East Jerusalem, which was unilaterally annexed by Israel in disregard of international law.
Even in "peacetime", Palestinian residential areas and Jewish settlements are intertwined, and a large number of civil conflicts mainly involving land occupation, water resources and crossing rights occur. After the outbreak of the Gaza war, hatred between Jews and Palestinians surged and armed conflicts surged. Once the angry Palestinians are organized and armed by Hamas, a full-scale scuffle with armed Jewish settlers will be triggered.
Moreover, this is not a linear conflict along the border like Gaza, but an all-round flowering in the whole West Bank. It will be an incredible disaster for Arab residents who are all soldiers and Jewish settlers who are all soldiers to fight to the death.
The United States is not without worries about this.
Israel will not be destroyed, but the United States will definitely bear the burden of a long-term war. This is a heavier burden than Ukraine.
No matter whether it is reoccupation or blockade, Gaza is a complete piece, and the military issue is relatively simple. However, if the West Bank is to be fully occupied, the Israeli army does not have enough troops; It is necessary to divide the troops according to the status quo, and the Israeli army forces are more important. The reserve recruitment of more than 300,000 people is not enough, and the bigger problem is the need for long-term recruitment.
Israel’s economy has been shut down because of reserve recruitment, and long-term recruitment is unbearable. In 2021, Israel’s GDP was $488.5 billion. Even if the United States only needs to subsidize a quarter, it will be $120 billion a year. The population of Israel is smaller than that of Ukraine, but its living standard is higher and its expenses are higher. This has not been included in the cost of combat operations.
Statistical chart of Israel’s GDP and growth rate in 2011-2021
The United States has to bear the burden reluctantly, but this is also the last burden that the United States needs. The American economy is turning cold, and "Black Friday" is traditionally a popular moment before Christmas, but this year’s "Black Friday" performance is bleak. The biggest chill comes from employment. The salary increase in October is only 0.1%, which means that employment is getting colder, which is a precursor to the continuous cooling of consumption. American consumption accounts for 2/3 of GDP, and the cooling of consumption is no small matter.
2024 is an election year, and Ukraine has become a big burden for the United States, and the end of the war is far away. It may not be the direct focus of party struggle in Congress if Israel is carried on its back, but it is bound to be the focus of party struggle to make up for the western wall of Israel and which eastern wall needs to be torn down. Biden’s political capital is not enough, and it is really inappropriate to be "defeated" by Israel.
Due to the extensive domestic political pressure, it is difficult for Europe to help Israel like Ukraine, no matter how enthusiastic Ursula von der Leyen is to be the "Israelis tonight". Let’s just say that the huge Muslim population in Europe overwhelmingly supports Palestine and opposes Israel. The mainstream society in Europe also has a strong criticism of Israel in the Gaza War, not to mention that Europe’s economic difficulties are greater than those in the United States.
Japan and South Korea have been "apportioned" with the heavy task of assisting Ukraine and have no spare capacity to support Israel.
All this assumes that the Israeli army can successfully fight in southern Gaza, end major battles within a few months, and basically destroy Hamas’ tunnel system throughout Gaza. This is a huge assumption.
Hamas has long been prepared for a large-scale invasion by the Israeli army and is determined to die. Before the Israeli army controlled all the surface positions in northern Gaza, jabari Ya refugee camp did not enter, and its control over Gaza City was unclear. However, the fighting in southern Gaza is more complicated, and the problem of civilian casualties is unbearable.
The original residents in the north and refugees from the south may make civilian casualties far more than those in northern Gaza. Now that the international community has been highly angry about the civilian casualties in Gaza, this is a huge problem for Israel.
It is impossible to drive the refugees back. The median age of the population in Gaza is only 18 years old. If a large number of refugees return to northern Gaza, they will inevitably be mixed with a large number of Hamas personnel. Screening is impossible, and it is even more impossible to draw a line by age. What is lacking in the tunnel is people, not weapons. If unarmed Hamas in the south meets left-behind Hamas in the north, the Israeli army will have wasted all its efforts.
If Hamas does not hesitate to sacrifice everything, it will drag the Israeli army to Gaza and cause the greatest casualties. The situation facing the Israeli army in the coming months will be very arduous. Not only the increasing casualties have a great impact on the hearts of Israelis, but the martyred Hamas has actually achieved its ultimate goal: to awaken the Palestinian people with fierce resistance and sacrifice.
This is exactly what Austin warned: "Pushing civilians into the enemy’s arms will not result in tactical victory but strategic victory."
But the Gaza war is a war that Israel has to fight in and doesn’t know how to end it.
First of all, it’s about Netanyahu. As an Israeli leader who plays the national security card again and again, it is unforgivable to let Israel suffer such a sudden attack on October 7. In order to save his political life, he needs to avenge Israel and himself with a strong wartime leader attitude.
Netanyahu said that Israel will continue to fight until the goal is achieved (Source: Wall Street Journal)
But the Gaza war not only needs to destroy Hamas, it is immediate revenge; It is even more necessary to solve the Gaza problem once and for all, so that Israel will no longer be threatened by similar threats.
Hamas represents Palestinians’ anti-Israel thoughts and survival plots, which are widely distributed not only in Gaza, but also in the West Bank. It is useless to physically destroy Hamas, which was originally "made out of nothing" and was established in the first Palestinian uprising in 1987-91.
The first Palestinian uprising forced Israel to face up to the issue of Palestinian rights, which eventually led to the Oslo agreement in 1993. Rabin and Arafat achieved a historic handshake, but in the end they fell short. Since then, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been intermittent, and it is the latest and biggest outbreak.
When Netanyahu was re-elected as prime minister in 2009, he publicly promised not to repeat the "mistake" of unilateral withdrawal from Gaza (as required by the Oslo agreement) because "unilateral withdrawal has brought neither peace nor security". However, before the Oslo agreement, Israeli military control of Gaza did not bring peace and security, and the garrison and protection of Jewish settlements (there were 21 settlements and about 8,000 Jewish settlers in northern Gaza before the final dismantling) became unbearable.
More than a decade later, Hamas has been integrated with 2.3 million Gazans, and it can be rebuilt even if its military organization and political structure are eliminated. The source of Hamas’s strength is not a few people and guns, but anti-Israel thoughts and survival plots. Hamas or the "next Hamas" cannot be eliminated unless all Gazans are physically eliminated. Even if all Gazans are driven to Sinai, it will only push the conflict line in a limited way and not solve the problem. It was precisely because of this that the Israeli army withdrew from Gaza that it took a step back, disengaged and strictly controlled Hamas or similar threats. But the Hamas raid on October 7 proved that this is not enough.
In fact, this is not only a problem of Netanyahu, but also a problem of the whole country of Israel. The Gaza war only smeared this issue on the faces of all Israelis, and it can no longer be avoided.
The Gaza war can end the fighting, but it cannot end the war. This is the most difficult problem in the Gaza war.
Reporting/feedback
